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Polymarket 中文行情工作台
下一任Fable模型(5.2+)发布on...?

下一任Fable模型(5.2+)发布on...?Next Fable Model (5.2+) released on...?

预测概率 29.3%24h 成交 $16.3K总成交 $96.5K选项 18结束 2026-11-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
10月20日October 2029.3%$2.9K
10月22日October 2219.6%$2.2K
No发布在10月31日前No release by October 3113.0%$2.0K
10月21日October 2111.8%$1.2K
10月19日October 194.3%$203
10月16日October 162.6%$1.6K
10月24日October 241.5%$100
10月17日October 171.4%$679

规则说明

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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