Marathon Fusion黄金收益率of 0.1+ per fusion neutron confirmed by...?Marathon Fusion gold yield of 0.1+ per fusion neutron confirmed by...?
预测概率 50.0%24h 成交 $0总成交 $0选项 2结束 2027-07-01
各选项实时概率
选项
英文原名
概率
24h 成交
6月30日
June 30
50.0%
$0
12月31日
December 31
49.5%
$0
规则说明
On October 21, 2026, Marathon Fusion announced that it had "demonstrated high-rate alchemy," turning mercury into stable gold using fusion neutrons and "beating CERN's record by a factor of 10." (see: https://startupfortune.com/marathon-fusion-says-it-turned-mercury-into-gold-no-proof-yet/) Marathon Fusion's paper titled "Scalable Chrysopoeia via (n, 2n) Reactions Driven by Deuterium-Tritium Fusion Neutrons" (https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.13461) projects gold production of approximately 2 tonnes per gigawatt of thermal fusion power per year, based on neutron transport simulations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a gold conversion efficiency of at least 0.1 gold atoms per fusion neutron is confirmed through at least one of the qualifying confirmation methods listed below by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying experiment is one in which stable gold-197 is produced from mercury using neutrons generated by deuterium-tritium fusion reactions (including deuterium-tritium neutron generators), and in which the number of gold-197 atoms produced divided by the total number of fusion neutrons emitted by the neutron source during the irradiation is at least 0.1.
The number of gold-197 atoms produced includes gold-197 resulting from the decay of mercury-197 created during the irradiation. The number of fusion neutrons emitted will be the measured total neutron output of the source over the irradiation, not only the neutrons that r