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Where will 2026 rank among hottest years——record会发生吗?

Where will 2026 rank among hottest years——record会发生吗?Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?

预测概率 78.5%24h 成交 $5.5K总成交 $3.78M选项 6结束 2027-03-02

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
178.5%$2.5K
218.5%$1.5K
30.2%$373
40.2%$293
50.1%$373
6及以下6 or lower0.1%$394

规则说明

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data. Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc. If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies. This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

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