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Best AI模型——10月19日会发生吗?

Best AI模型——10月19日会发生吗?Best AI model on October 19?

预测概率 79.0%24h 成交 $14.5K总成交 $23.4K选项 4结束 2026-10-20

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
Gemini-4-argon-highgemini-4-argon-high79.0%$10.2K
其他Other17.9%$3.6K
Claude-fable-5.1-maxclaude-fable-5.1-max0.3%$207
Claude-Opus-5.5-highclaude-opus-5.5-high0.2%$441

规则说明

This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5.5-high” would be ranked ahead of “gemini-4-argon-high”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source

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