P
Polymarket 中文市场预测工作台
巴西总统大选第二轮: Specific优势的Victory

巴西总统大选第二轮: Specific优势的VictoryBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: Specific Margin of Victory

预测概率 50.0%24h 成交 $47.5K总成交 $66.4K选项 15结束 2026-10-26

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
其他Other50.0%$0
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗2-4%Flávio Bolsonaro 2-4%28.5%$13.1K
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗4-6%Flávio Bolsonaro 4-6%27.5%$5.9K
卢拉da Silva <2%Lula da Silva <2%19.5%$7.4K
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗<2%Flávio Bolsonaro <2%13.5%$13.0K
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗6-8%Flávio Bolsonaro 6-8%8.2%$2.0K
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗8-10%Flávio Bolsonaro 8-10%3.6%$314
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗12%+Flávio Bolsonaro 12%+1.7%$217

规则说明

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If a candidate other than Flávio Bolsonaro or Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives the most valid votes in the second round, or if the top two candidates receive exactly the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of cre

相关事件(选举)

权力格局: 2026中期选举 · Which party will win参议院——2026年会发生吗? · 巴西总统大选第二轮:优势的Victory · Which party will win House——2026年会发生吗? · 以色列总理下一任选举之后? · 塞尔维亚Parliamentary选举获胜者 · 民主党总统提名人2028 · Texas参议院选举获胜者 · 共和党人总统提名人2028 · 下一任总理的塞尔维亚?

→ 查看选举的全部事件

浏览更多事件

全部 · 政治 · 选举 · 经济 · 加密货币 · 科技 · 地缘政治 · 体育 · 文化娱乐 · 科学

→ 在工作台查看 巴西总统大选第二轮: Specific优势的Victory 的实时盘口与成交