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以色列x伊朗停火continues through...?

以色列x伊朗停火continues through...?Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

预测概率 95.5%24h 成交 $652.7K总成交 $35.39M选项 6结束 2026-12-31

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
10月18日October 1895.5%$203.0K
10月21日October 2194.0%$171.7K
10月31日October 3182.5%$69.2K
11月15日November 1570.5%$5.7K
11月30日November 3059.5%$9.2K
12月31日December 3145.5%$13.1K

规则说明

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state of ceasefire remains in effect between Israel and Iran through the listed date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time (IRST). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. A state of ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect between Israel and Iran if either Israel or Iran takes a qualifying military action against the other country between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM IRST. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Israel or Iran, that directly impacts the other country. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munit

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