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下一任以色列的部长的Defense?

下一任以色列的部长的Defense?Next Israeli Minister of Defense?

预测概率 50.0%24h 成交 $11.4K总成交 $62.8K选项 34结束 2027-03-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
其他Other50.0%$0
No下一任部长在2月28前No Next Minister by Feb 2838.6%$10.0K
Naftali Bennett20.6%$376
以色列KatzIsrael Katz13.1%$686
Yair Golan6.7%$0
Avigdor Lieberman6.2%$0
Ofer Winter6.0%$314
Yair Lapid5.9%$0

规则说明

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of Defense in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of Defense will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of Defense” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of Defense are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of Defense assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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