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Polymarket 中文市场预测工作台
乌克兰目标莫斯科on...?

乌克兰目标莫斯科on...?Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?

预测概率 85.0%24h 成交 $155.6K总成交 $462.8K选项 13结束 2026-11-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
10月19日October 1985.0%$432
10月22日October 2280.0%$0
10月21日October 2179.5%$0
10月20日October 2077.5%$62
10月23日October 2375.0%$0
10月24日October 2473.5%$0
10月31日October 3172.0%$0
10月26日October 2671.0%$0

规则说明

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Ukraine, directed at Moscow. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Military action that consists primarily or exclusively of munitions that are intercepted before impact will still qualify if they constitute a qualifying military action during the specified timeframe; whether the munitions were intercepted, where the munitions landed, and whether damage resulted will not be considered. A military action will be considered directed at Moscow if it targets any location within the federal city of Moscow. The occurrence, attribution, timing, and target of a qualifying mili

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