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伊朗agrees to end enrichment的uranium——12月31日前会发生吗?

伊朗agrees to end enrichment的uranium——12月31日前会发生吗?Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

预测概率 2.5%24h 成交 $29.6K总成交 $1.94M选项 1结束 2026-12-31

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
是Yes2.5%$29.6K
否No97.5%$29.6K

规则说明

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count. An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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