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Polymarket 中文市场预测工作台
特斯拉会发布Optimus by...吗?

特斯拉会发布Optimus by...吗?Will Tesla release Optimus by...?

预测概率 11.4%24h 成交 $3.4K总成交 $136.4K选项 1结束 2027-01-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
是Yes11.4%$3.4K
否No88.6%$3.4K

规则说明

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla releases a humanoid, bipedal robot (such as Optimus) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying product is a humanoid, bipedal robot intended for consumer use and newly introduced. Non-humanoid robotics, accessories, internal factory deployments, employee-only programs, and partner/enterprise pilots do not qualify. To be considered “released,” the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the timeframe via an official Tesla consumer channel (e.g., tesla.com) with a live checkout or paid preorder/deposit. Announcements, unveilings, demos, or waitlists with “register interest” pages without payment do not suffice. Availability in any region counts if it is open to the general public. The primary resolution source will be official statements and materials from Tesla.

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