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TIME Person的Year 2026

TIME Person的Year 2026TIME Person of the Year 2026

预测概率 28.5%24h 成交 $2.8K总成交 $135.1K选项 28结束 2027-07-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
Zohran Mamdani28.5%$176
Mark Carney16.5%$0
教皇Leo XIVPope Leo XIV15.5%$0
Benjamin Netanyahu8.0%$0
Dario Amodei6.8%$0
Donald Trump6.5%$0
人工智能Artificial Intelligence5.9%$0
Sam Altman5.5%$0

规则说明

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conce

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