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下一任法国的总统大选: who will advance to the 2nd round?

下一任法国的总统大选: who will advance to the 2nd round?Next French Presidential Election: who will advance to the 2nd round?

预测概率 89.0%24h 成交 $16.4K总成交 $378.0K选项 36结束 2027-04-19

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
玛丽娜·勒庞Marine Le Pen89.0%$0
Jean-Luc Mélenchon41.5%$845
Édouard Philippe38.0%$94
David Lisnard14.9%$6.9K
Raphaël Glucksmann7.0%$101
Bruno Retailleau6.2%$0
Gabriel Attal5.9%$0
François Hollande5.9%$702

规则说明

The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held around April 2027. This market pertains to the outcome of the next French presidential election, regardless of whether it follows the scheduled end of the current term or is held earlier. The President of France is elected via a two-round system; a candidate must secure over 50% of the vote to win outright in the first round. If no candidate achieves this, the top two contenders advance to a runoff second round. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to the second round of the next French presidential election or wins the election outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no such election occurs or the results of the first round of this election are not known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the French Government, specifically the Ministry of the Interior (https://www.interieur.gouv.fr/).

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