P
Polymarket 中文市场预测工作台
日本GDP growth——Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)会发生吗?

日本GDP growth——Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)会发生吗?Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?

预测概率 29.0%24h 成交 $797总成交 $44.7K选项 10结束 2026-11-17

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
0.0%–0.8%29.0%$369
-0.8%–0.0%20.0%$6
0.8%–1.6%17.5%$113
1.6%–2.4%13.5%$269
-1.6%– -0.8%8.5%$20
2.4%–3.2%5.3%$20
<-2.4%3.8%$0
3.2%–4.0%3.1%$0

规则说明

This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026. The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part

相关事件(经济)

美联储利率决议(10月) · 最大企业end of 2026年10月? · 美联储利率决议(12月) · 霍尔木兹海峡的交通在12月31日之前恢复正常? · How many美联储降息——2026年会发生吗? · 英国央行决议——11月会发生吗? · NYSE marketwide circuit breaker——2027年前会发生吗? · 最大企业end of 2026年12月? · How low will 30-year国债收益率get——2027年前会发生吗? · 2nd最大企业end of 2026年10月?

→ 查看经济的全部事件

浏览更多事件

全部 · 政治 · 选举 · 经济 · 加密货币 · 科技 · 地缘政治 · 体育 · 文化娱乐 · 科学

→ 在工作台查看 日本GDP growth——Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)会发生吗? 的实时盘口与成交