P
Polymarket 中文市场预测工作台
俄罗斯capture all的Kostyantynivka by...?

俄罗斯capture all的Kostyantynivka by...?Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?

预测概率 58.0%24h 成交 $10.7K总成交 $2.04M选项 5结束 2027-01-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
2027年6月30日June 30, 202758.0%$30
2027年3月31日March 31, 202737.5%$0
12月31日December 3112.5%$10.6K
11月30日November 305.5%$0
10月31日October 310.8%$81

规则说明

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the entirety of Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, (48.528896° N, 37.702514° E) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Kostyantynivka will be considered captured if the entirety of the municipality is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The boundaries of the municipality are those shown under the “Ukrainian Settlements” layer on the ISW map. If all area within the municipality is shaded under a qualifying layer, however, the shading does not precisely match up with the border such that there is a tiny amount of unshaded area along the border of the municipality, this will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resol

相关事件(地缘政治)

US-伊朗停火continues through...? · 以色列总理下一任选举之后? · 以色列x伊朗停火continues through...? · Who wins参议院pending Hormuz协议——中期选举前会发生吗? · Who wins参议院pending石油会低于$85中期选举之前吗? · 北约x俄罗斯军方clash by...? · Putin会卸任俄罗斯by...总统吗? · Who wins参议院pending Hormuz协议在10月23和石油前会低于$80中期选举之前吗? · US-伊朗停火continues through中期选举? · US宣布end的Iranian blockade by...?

→ 查看地缘政治的全部事件

浏览更多事件

全部 · 政治 · 选举 · 经济 · 加密货币 · 科技 · 地缘政治 · 体育 · 文化娱乐 · 科学

→ 在工作台查看 俄罗斯capture all的Kostyantynivka by...? 的实时盘口与成交