P
Polymarket 中文行情工作台
下一任leader out的power——2027年前会发生吗?

下一任leader out的power——2027年前会发生吗?Next leader out of power before 2027?

预测概率 47.5%24h 成交 $40.2K总成交 $1.13M选项 22结束 2027-01-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
None 2027年之前None before 202747.5%$576
Netanyahu -以色列PMNetanyahu - Israel PM27.5%$35.2K
Sánchez - Spanish PM8.6%$638
Lecornu -法国PMLecornu - France PM4.8%$70
默茨-德国的总理Merz - German Chancellor1.8%$577
Macron -法国总统Macron - France President1.6%$1.2K
Zelenskyy -乌克兰总统Zelenskyy - Ukraine President1.6%$916
Abbas -总统的PalestineAbbas - President of Palestine1.5%$0

规则说明

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

相关事件(地缘政治)

以色列x伊朗停火continues through...? · US-伊朗停火continues through...? · US宣布end的Iranian blockade by...? · Who wins参议院pending Hormuz协议——中期选举前会发生吗? · 以色列总理下一任选举之后? · 霍尔木兹海峡通行恢复正常——10月31日前会发生吗? · Who wins参议院pending Hormuz协议——10月23前会发生吗? · Who wins参议院pending石油会高于及以下$80中期选举之前吗? · 伊朗leadership change by...? · US-伊朗Hormuz协议by...?

→ 查看地缘政治的全部事件

浏览更多事件

全部 · 政治 · 选举 · 经济 · 加密货币 · 科技 · 地缘政治 · 体育 · 文化娱乐 · 科学

→ 在工作台查看 下一任leader out的power——2027年前会发生吗? 的实时盘口与成交