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俄罗斯capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

俄罗斯capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?

预测概率 22.5%24h 成交 $31.2K总成交 $286.1K选项 2结束 2027-01-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
2027年3月31日March 31, 202722.5%$30.8K
12月31日December 319.0%$490

规则说明

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the railroad station (48.578748° N, 37.616899° E) located in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, Donetsk Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be est

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