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Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer会低于Iranian control by...吗?

Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer会低于Iranian control by...吗?Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

预测概率 1.9%24h 成交 $31.1K总成交 $265.8K选项 1结束 2026-10-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
是Yes1.9%$31.1K
否No98.1%$31.1K

规则说明

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island. "No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

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