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Who will attend round的US-伊朗peace talks——12月31日前会发生吗?

Who will attend round的US-伊朗peace talks——12月31日前会发生吗?Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

预测概率 36.0%24h 成交 $27.0K总成交 $1.52M选项 23结束 2027-01-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
Abbas Araghchi36.0%$355
Steve Witkoff35.0%$189
Jared Kushner34.5%$445
Nick Stewart25.0%$4.6K
Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani24.5%$2.0K
Kazem Gharibabadi24.0%$3.0K
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf21.5%$60
Majid Takht-Ravanchi21.0%$623

规则说明

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends any formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) an

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