P
Polymarket 中文市场预测工作台
俄罗斯capture Orikhiv by...?

俄罗斯capture Orikhiv by...?Will Russia capture Orikhiv by...?

预测概率 54.0%24h 成交 $46.3K总成交 $451.3K选项 3结束 2027-01-01

各选项实时概率

选项英文原名概率24h 成交
2027年6月30日June 30, 202754.0%$2.0K
2027年3月31日March 31, 202733.0%$34.9K
12月31日December 3111.0%$9.4K

规则说明

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the train station in Orikhiv (47.559860° N, 35.786219° E), Zaporizhzhia Oblast, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The train station will be considered captured if any part of the icon is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading under the following layers will qualify: - Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain - Assessed Russian Advances Shading under the following layers will not qualify: - Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas - Claimed Russian Territory Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded under a qualifying layer on the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Train Sta

相关事件(地缘政治)

以色列总理下一任选举之后? · US-伊朗停火continues through...? · 以色列x伊朗停火continues through...? · US宣布end的Iranian blockade by...? · Iranian政权fall会在2027年前发生吗? · Perim Island no longer会低于胡塞武装control by...吗? · US-伊朗停火continues through中期选举? · Trump out as总统——2027年前会发生吗? · 沙特阿拉伯军事行动针对也门on...? · 委内瑞拉leader end of 2026?

→ 查看地缘政治的全部事件

浏览更多事件

全部 · 政治 · 选举 · 经济 · 加密货币 · 科技 · 地缘政治 · 体育 · 文化娱乐 · 科学

→ 在工作台查看 俄罗斯capture Orikhiv by...? 的实时盘口与成交